VanillaNinja

#17· composite 93.0

0x04d7…b035View on Polymarket ↗

Total P&L

+$51.9K

P100

Win rate

15.8%

Volume

$326.2K

P100

Trades / markets

1,805 / 120

Calibration — forecasts vs reality

This wallet's predicted probabilities vs how often those outcomes actually happened. Win-rate is a vanity metric; calibration is the real skill signal. The full breakdown — Brier, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe — is below.

The skill breakdown

Profitability

Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
Total P&L
ROI %
Profit factor
Profit per $ risked
Time-weighted return
Gross/net ratio

Calibration

Brier score
Brier skill score
Murphy reliability
Murphy resolution
Log loss
Expected calibration error
Peer score
Baseline score
Calibration AUC
Bonder-adjusted Brier

Risk

Sharpe ratio
Sortino ratio
Calmar ratio
Max drawdown
Drawdown duration
CVaR (5%)
Return volatility

Alpha

Alpha vs mid
Average entry edge
Counter-consensus alpha
Information coefficient
Early-entry alpha
Late-entry alpha
Late-entry return

Activity

Lifetime volume
30-day volume
24-hour volume
Trade count
Markets traded
Days active
Trading frequency
Survivability

Conviction

Average position size
Position-size CV
Concentration HHI
Kelly adherence

Execution

Fee burden
Speed of entry
Mean hold duration
Concurrent positions

Performance

Win rate
Win/loss P&L ratio
Longest win streak
Longest loss streak
Hit rate vs implied

Category Specialization

Category HHI
Best category Brier
Category win-rate spread
Top category share

Unlock all 57 skill metrics — free

Brier calibration, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe, information coefficient & full trade history.

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