As a trader
Did the trades make money?
- Closed positions in profit
- 1 of 1
- Profit on 100 shares
- +$13.00 on $42.50
- Return
- +30.6 %
PolyrankFriday, 9 October 2026 · re-ranked through the day · P&L every few min
Follow the skilled,
not the lucky.
Polyrank scores every Polymarket wallet on whether its prices were right — not how much it won. 3,205,447 wallets, 84 metrics, every number on-chain.
3,205,447 wallets · 6,649,064 markets · 2.81B on-chain fill events · history since 2020
Fig. 1 · simulated
Luck fades. Skill compounds.
120100250500trades (√ scale)$0After 20After 500Luckiest flipper · #1Skilled · #115 of 121Skilled · #1 · +$50Same flipper · #70 · −$2
Chapter 2
The luck machine
Give 1,000 people a fair coin and 100 bets at 50¢. Nobody has an edge. A leaderboard sorted by profit will still crown ten geniuses.
Fig. 2 · simulated
Final profit of 1,000 coin-flippers
−$40−$20$0+$20+$40the “top 10”
+$22 or better ↓
+$22 or better ↓
Round 1
The profit leaderboard
| # | Trader | Profit | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flipper #0244 | +$28 | 64 % |
| =2 | Flipper #0460 | +$26 | 63 % |
| =2 | Flipper #0758 | +$26 | 63 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0282 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0379 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0548 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0549 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0689 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =9 | Flipper #0394 | +$22 | 61 % |
| =9 | Flipper #0521 | +$22 | 61 % |
Rerun every coin and see who stays on top.
A leaderboard sorted by profit is mostly a leaderboard of coin flips. Polyrank asks a different question: would they win again?
Measured on real Polymarket traders
Skill persists. Of the top 1% of traders by luck-adjusted edge in Q2 2026 who kept trading, 81% were still in the top 10% the next quarter. Chance would be 10%.
Chapter 3
Two ways to be right
A trader can read the price right and the world wrong. Polyrank scores the two separately. Here is one real market, and one example trade in it.
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Yes price, ¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢OctNovDecJanFebMarBought Yes · 42.5¢Sold · 55.5¢ (+13¢)Held to the end: −42.5¢ a sharePeak 84.5¢Resolved No · Yes paid 0¢
✓ Good trade
As a predictor
Did they back what happened?
- Resolved calls right
- 0 of 1
- Paid vs what happened
- 42.5¢ for a side that paid 0¢
- Edge vs odds
- −42.5 pp
1 · The market
Through the autumn, traders priced a Hassett nomination between 23¢ and 47.5¢.
2 · The trade
An example buyer takes Yes at 42.5¢ on 20 Nov and sells nine days later at 55.5¢: +13¢ a share.
3 · The resolution
The price peaked at 84.5¢. Then the market resolved No: the Yes they backed paid 0¢.
4 · Two report cards
Good trade, wrong call. A P&L leaderboard sees only the first card. Polyrank scores both, and tells you which one a wallet is good at.
Chapter 4
Price paid vs what happened
If you keep paying 40¢, you should win about 4 times in 10. Win more often than the prices you paid, and you are seeing something the market isn’t. That gap is what we score.
Fig. 4 · live
A top-ranked wallet (Fu…ob), 2,286 resolved positions
Move the price
- Paid about
- 75¢
- The price says win
- 75 in 100
- It actually won
- 84 in 100
+9 points better than the price, over 199 positions.
Chapter 5
How the Copy Engine picks
A high score is not enough. Every morning the engine sends every scored wallet through the same gates. The ones you could actually follow, and are still good, make the board of 25.
Fig. 5 · the 9 Oct 2026 build, 06:45 UTC
The sieve
- 56,737
Gate 0 · Scored
≥ 10 resolved positions in 14 days
Enough recent, settled history to measure skill at all.
- 29,669
Gate 1 · Still trading
last fill ≤ 48 h ago
A wallet that stopped cannot lose its streak. A stale leader is bait, not a signal.
- 19,993
Gate 2 · Not sniping
median buy > 30 min before resolution
You cannot copy a fill placed minutes before the market settles.
- 5,315
Gate 3 · Copyable profit
taker-side slice profitable (> $0)
Edge that only exists as resting maker orders cannot be followed.
- 5,242
Gate 4 · Not fading
no collapse in the trailing 7 days
A 10-point drop at Welch t ≤ −2.5 trips the switch and evicts the wallet.
The board
Top 25
of 3,097 with positive 14-day skill
The survivors ranked by 14-day skill, adjusted for luck (τ = 25). Rebuilt daily; each day is kept as its own record.
Counts as of 9 Oct 2026; bar widths to scale. Every gate and parameter →
Chapter 6
Wallet X-ray
Every Polymarket wallet gets the same card: the money it made and the calls it got right, kept apart. Here is one from the top 25, masked. Then paste your own.
1 · Profit, after fees
What the wallet took home, net of Polymarket fees.
2 · Win rate
Made money: how often a settled position ended in profit. The trader card.
3 · Prediction accuracy
Picked the winner: how often the side it bought won, on 2,286 settled positions. The predictor card.
4 · Edge vs odds
Accuracy minus the 59.8¢ it paid on average. Above zero = better than the market's price.
5 · Skill score
#24 on the public board today. Blends calibration, edge and risk.
Masked wallet
Fu…ob
- Profit, after fees
- +$238,779
- Win rate
- 70 %
- Prediction accuracy
- 65.1 %
- Edge vs odds
- +5.3 pts
- Skill score
- 93.9 / 100
Chapter 7
Proof, honestly
We copied, on paper, the 25 wallets the engine would have picked each day, and the 25 a profit leaderboard would have picked, under the same rules. Here is what $50 per copy did.
Fig. 7
Net result per $50 copy
Copy Engine
+$8.45
95 % CI +$6.98 to +$12.75 · 10,230 copies
P&L leaderboard
−$11.24
61,910 copies · positive on 0 of 35 days
$0July 2026 · 26 daysAugust 2026 · 9 days+$10.42+$7.86
Polyrank Copy Engine−$11.42−$11.48
Copy the P&L leaderboard
Polyrank Copy Engine−$11.42−$11.48
Copy the P&L leaderboard
Chapter 8
Start with a wallet
Looking up any wallet is free. Pro is for when you want every metric and the live feed.
Free
$0forever
- Look up any wallet
- The top-100 board
- Headline metrics
- 3 follows
Pro
$23/ month · Founding rate
Open to the first 250 Founding Traders or until 31 Oct 2026 (UTC), whichever comes first. Normally $39 / month; the rate holds while your subscription stays active.
- All 84 metrics and full history
- Full leaderboard, Builder and Compare
- Unlimited follows and the live fill feed
Quant
$149/ month
- 500k API requests a month + webhooks
- MCP server for Claude and agents
- Or pay per call with x402
Questions, wallet spotlights and the daily digest live in the Telegram group.
Join the TelegramFive answers
How is this different from the Polymarket leaderboard?
Polymarket ranks by profit, which rewards luck and size. Polyrank scores whether the price a wallet paid was right, not whether it got paid: calibration, edge over the price, and risk, across 84 metrics.
What does “calibration” mean here?
If a wallet keeps buying at 70¢, it should win about 7 times in 10. Calibration measures how its real win rate compares with the prices it paid, band by band, on resolved positions. We score whether the price they paid was right — not whether they got paid.
How fresh is the data?
Every Polymarket trade is indexed from Polygon as blocks land; trade P&L updates every few minutes for most of the day and skill metrics are rebuilt nightly. The age of every number is public at /v1/meta/freshness.
Is this financial advice?
No. Polyrank is read-only analytics, not investment advice, and is not affiliated with Polymarket. Every number traces to a public Polygon transaction.
Is it custodial?
No. Polyrank never holds funds or keys: it is analytics over public on-chain data.