xu…08

#5,599· composite 90.5

0xCf…94

Total P&L

+$166.5K

P100

Win rate

50.5%

P53

Volume

$8.31M

P100

Trades / markets

208,712 / 17,416

Calibration — forecasts vs reality

This wallet's predicted probabilities vs how often those outcomes actually happened. Win-rate is a vanity metric; calibration is the real skill signal. The full breakdown — Brier, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe — is below.

The skill breakdown

Profitability

Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
Total P&L
Return on volume
Profit factor
Profit per $ risked
Time-weighted return
Gross/net ratio
Expectancy
Top-1 profit share
Top-3 profit share

Calibration

Brier score
Brier skill score
Murphy resolution
Log loss
Peer score
Baseline score
Calibration score
Bonder-adjusted Brier
Skill persistence

Risk

Sharpe ratio
Sortino ratio
Calmar ratio
Max drawdown
Days under water
CVaR (5%)
P&L volatility
Ulcer index
Recovery factor
Return skew
Open exposure
Floating loss
Market volatility

Alpha

Alpha vs mid
Average entry edge
Counter-consensus alpha
Information coefficient
Early-entry alpha
Late-entry alpha
Late-entry return

Activity

Lifetime volume
30-day volume
24-hour volume
Trade count
Markets traded
Days active
Trading frequency
Track record
Signal freshness

Conviction

Average position size
Position-size CV
Concentration HHI
Kelly adherence
Peak capital deployed

Execution

Fee burden
Speed of entry
Typical hold time
Median hold time
Hold to exit
Hold to resolution
Peak concurrent positions
Copyability
Execution slippage
Max copyable clip

Performance

Win rate
Win/loss P&L ratio
Longest win streak
Longest loss streak
Hit rate vs implied

Category Specialization

Category HHI
Best category Brier
Category win-rate spread
Top category share

Unlock all 75 skill metrics — free

Brier calibration, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe, information coefficient & full trade history.

Connect to unlock

Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice · Every number traces to a Polygon tx. Explore the leaderboard