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Tech · AI#2 AI model Style Control On

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

Live

$6.1K
$17.6K
48
$3.4K
$11.6K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Anthropic49.0%
  • Google31.5%
  • Meta14.0%
  • OpenAI4.8%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

21 open · 14 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Tech · AI
Series
#2 AI model Style Control On · monthly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
21 open · 14 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
431
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
8,934 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

See who is trading this event

The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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Who is trading this event

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

This event has 35 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 8, 2026 08:13 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.