Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place
Live
- $18.9K
- $18.9K
- 102
- $10.0K
- $187.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Kylian Mbappé64.5%
- Lamine Yamal18.5%
- Harry Kane14.5%
- Lionel Messi3.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
30 open · 21 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 64.5 %
Kylian Mbappé
$4.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 64.5¢No 35.5¢ - 18.5 %
Lamine Yamal
$2.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢ - 14.5 %
Harry Kane
$1.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢ - 3.5 %
Lionel Messi
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 2.3 %
Rodri
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.3¢No 97.7¢ - 1.5 %
Dayot Upamecano
$77.25 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.5 %
William Saliba
$77.25 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.3 %
Erling Haaland
$580.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - < 1 %
Fabian Ruiz
$660.83 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢
- < 1 %
Jude Bellingham
$704.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Vinícius Júnior
$600.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Nuno Mendes
$77.25 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Pau Cubarsi
$704.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Vitinha
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Ousmane Dembélé
$653.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Michael Olise
$600.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Declan Rice
$590.50 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
João Neves
$126.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Ferran Torres
$120.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Willian Pacho
$120.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Julián Quiñones
$33.81 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Achraf Hakimi
$25.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Bruno Fernandes
$23.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Gabriel Magalhães
$23.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Lautaro Martinez
$23.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Luis Diaz
$23.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Marc Cucurella
$23.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Marquinhos
$23.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Sadio Mané
$23.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
21 more that never traded
- No quote now
Other
- No quote now
Player A
- No quote now
Player B
- No quote now
Player C
- No quote now
Player D
- No quote now
Player E
- No quote now
Player F
- No quote now
Player G
- No quote now
Player H
- No quote now
Player I
- No quote now
Player J
- No quote now
Player K
- No quote now
Player L
- No quote now
Player M
- No quote now
Player N
- No quote now
Player O
- No quote now
Player P
- No quote now
Player Q
- No quote now
Player R
- No quote now
Player S
- No quote now
Player T
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Awards
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 15% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 30 open · 21 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 926
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 27,201 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 2nd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 2nd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 51 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 20, 2026 02:50 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.