Ballon d'Or Top 2 Finish 2026
Live
- $9.0K
- $10.2K
- 21
- $12.5K
- $69.0K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Harry Kane95.5%
- Kylian Mbappé57.0%
- Lamine Yamal39.5%
- Lionel Messi7.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
30 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 95.5 %
Harry Kane
Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢ - 57.0 %
Kylian Mbappé
$51.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢ - 39.5 %
Lamine Yamal
$3.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢ - 7.5 %
Lionel Messi
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢ - 5.0 %
Erling Haaland
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢ - 5.0 %
Jude Bellingham
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢ - 5.0 %
Vitinha
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢ - 4.5 %
Fabian Ruiz
$4.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.5 %
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.4 %
Ferran Torres
$82.52 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.4¢No 95.6¢
- 4.0 %
Ousmane Dembélé
$2.55 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢ - 3.5 %
Michael Olise
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.5 %
Rodri
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.5 %
Pau Cubarsi
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.2 %
Julián Quiñones
$157.07 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.2¢No 96.8¢ - 3.0 %
Achraf Hakimi
$251.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 1.9 %
William Saliba
$161.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.9¢No 98.1¢ - 1.9 %
Lautaro Martinez
$152.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.9¢No 98.1¢ - 1.8 %
Marc Cucurella
$157.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.8 %
Luis Diaz
$110.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.8 %
Vinícius Júnior
$396.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.5 %
Sadio Mané
$108.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.4 %
Willian Pacho
$107.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.4 %
Bruno Fernandes
$156.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.4 %
Dayot Upamecano
$107.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.4 %
Marquinhos
$107.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.1 %
Gabriel Magalhães
$2.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.1 %
João Neves
$153.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.1 %
Declan Rice
$81.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Nuno Mendes
$559.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Awards
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 15% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 30 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 71
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 7,210 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 2 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 30 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 16, 2026 22:41 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.