Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026
Live
- $8.8K
- $168.1K
- 49
- $137.7K
- $111.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Harry Kane99.2%
- Lamine Yamal98.0%
- Kylian Mbappé96.6%
- Rodri80.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
19 open · 12 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
Harry Kane
$6.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.2¢No 0.8¢ - 98.0 %
Lamine Yamal
$25.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢ - 96.6 %
Kylian Mbappé
$7.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 96.6¢No 3.4¢ - 80.5 %
Rodri
$1.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢ - 75.5 %
Lionel Messi
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢ - 25.5 %
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
$1.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢ - 19.5 %
Michael Olise
$713.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 15.5 %
Ousmane Dembélé
$881.19 traded, 24 h
Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢ - 10.3 %
Fabian Ruiz
$374.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.3¢No 89.7¢ - 4.5 %
Erling Haaland
$565.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢
- 1.4 %
Declan Rice
$721.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.3 %
Vitinha
$157.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - 1.1 %
Lautaro Martinez
$148.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Achraf Hakimi
$147.66 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
Jude Bellingham
$146.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Luis Diaz
$148.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Pau Cubarsi
$167.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Vinícius Júnior
$148.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
Bruno Fernandes
$148.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Awards
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 15% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 19 open · 12 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 336
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 12,743 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve "No." If more than 5 players tie for the top 5 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official top 5 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final five places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 31 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
12 of the 31 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 24, 2026 10:57 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.