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World · Economy & the FedBOJBank of Japan

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Live

$6.8K
$110.8K
33
$78.9K
$52.9K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • No change97.8%
  • 25 bps increase1.8%
  • 50+ bps increase0.5%
  • 25 bps decrease0.1%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

5 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 5 open questions add up to 100.3¢.

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Event facts

Category
World · Economy & the Fed
Series
Bank of Japan · annual
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
No trading fee
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
5 open
Fills, last 24 h
163
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
10,136 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

This event has 5 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Oct 30, 2026 00:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 23, 2026 03:22 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.