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Tech · AIBest AI model

Best AI model on October 19?

Live

$6.1K
$10.6K
69
$8.9K
$7.6K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • gemini-4-argon-high90.0%
  • Other9.6%
  • claude-fable-5.1-max0.3%
  • claude-opus-5.5-high0.3%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

4 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 4 open questions add up to 100.2¢.

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Event facts

Category
Tech · AI
Series
Best AI model · weekly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
4 open
Fills, last 24 h
131
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
16,543 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

See who is trading this event

The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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Who is trading this event

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

This event has 4 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Oct 20, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 16, 2026 10:48 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.