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Politics · Global electionsBrazil

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

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$7.3K
$18.7K
54
$17.5K
$121.0K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Lula65.5%
  • Flavio Bolsonaro35.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

2 open · 6 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · Global elections
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
2 open · 6 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
114
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
13,646 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

This event has 8 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Oct 26, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 8, 2026 12:52 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.