China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
Live
- $8.3K
- $46.7K
- 61
- $12.2K
- $30.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 4.3-4.6%100.0%
- <3.4%0.1%
- 3.4-3.7%0.1%
- 3.7-4.0%0.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
9 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 9 open questions add up to 100.4¢.
- > 99 %
4.3-4.6%
$3.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 100.0¢No 0.0¢ - < 1 %
4.0-4.3%
$2.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
4.6-4.9%
$1.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
3.7-4.0%
$723.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
4.9-5.2%
$145.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
5.2-5.5%
$0.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
5.5%+
$0.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
<3.4%
$0.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
3.4-3.7%
$0.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Economy
- Series
- China GDP · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 9 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 189
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 10,590 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
This event has 9 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Oct 21, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 19, 2026 03:40 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.