Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?
Live
- $7.4K
- $8.4K
- 30
- $4.5K
- $18.0K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 200+19.5%
- 140-15915.5%
- 100-11915.0%
- 120-13913.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 11 open questions add up to 89.8¢.
- 19.5 %
200+
$873.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 15.5 %
140-159
$1.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢ - 15.0 %
100-119
$738.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢ - 13.5 %
120-139
$821.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢ - 9.0 %
160-179
$916.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 7.9 %
80-99
$116.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.9¢No 92.1¢ - 7.5 %
180-199
$834.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢ - < 1 %
20-39
$699.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
60-79
$614.41 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
40-59
$604.41 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Trump
- Series
- Trump Truth Social · daily
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 124
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,332 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 9, 12:00 PM ET and October 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This event has 11 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against truthsocial.com. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 16, 2026 16:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 8, 2026 17:05 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.