Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
Live
- $12.9K
- $12.9K
- 46
- $24.7K
- $201.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 180-19922.5%
- 200-21922.5%
- 220-23917.0%
- 160-17914.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
26 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 26 open questions add up to 108.5¢.
- 22.5 %
200-219
$550.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢ - 22.5 %
180-199
$319.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢ - 17.0 %
220-239
$398.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢ - 14.5 %
160-179
$21.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢ - 9.5 %
240-259
$527.80 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 7.0 %
140-159
$452.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢ - 4.5 %
260-279
$1.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 2.1 %
280-299
$1.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 1.7 %
120-139
$14.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢ - 1.5 %
300-319
$1.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢
- 1.3 %
100-119
$63.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - < 1 %
320-339
$3.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
340-359
$1.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
80-99
$4.06 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
360-379
$1.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
380-399
$0.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
420-439
$31.99 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
400-419
$0.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
500+
$6.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
60-79
$4.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
<20
$9.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
20-39
$9.34 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
40-59
$9.34 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
440-459
$9.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
460-479
$9.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
480-499
$9.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Tweet counts
- Series
- Elon Tweets · weekly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 26 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 170
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 94,864 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 9 12:00 PM ET to October 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This event has 26 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against x.com. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 16, 2026 16:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 18:22 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.