Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Live
- $5.0K
- $183.4K
- 34
- $88.9K
- $270.8K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Hike–Pause–Hike70.0%
- Hike–Pause–Pause18.0%
- Hike–Hike–Hike9.5%
- Hike–Hike–Pause2.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
5 open · 4 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 5 open questions add up to 101.4¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Inflation
- Series
- Fed 3-Parlay · daily
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 5 open · 4 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 91
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 9,178 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This event has 9 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
4 of the 9 have already settled No.
It can settle from Dec 9, 2026 23:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 21, 2026 20:41 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.