Gemini 4.0 released by...?
Live
- $38.2K
- $598.3K
- 677
- $181.0K
- $47.8K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 3098.0%
- October 3192.0%
- October 2382.5%
- October 1650.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 open · 7 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 98.0 %
November 30
$931.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢ - 92.0 %
October 31
$10.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢ - 82.5 %
October 23
$1.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢ - 50.5 %
October 16
$3.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢ - 47.5 %
October 15
$11.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢ - 39.5 %
October 14
$2.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢ - 38.5 %
October 13
$1.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢ - 13.2 %
October 12
$2.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 13.2¢No 86.8¢ - 2.9 %
October 10
$3.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.9¢No 97.1¢ - 1.7 %
October 9
$855.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 10 open · 7 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 1,296
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 86,072 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 17 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
7 of the 17 have already settled No.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 17:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.