Gemini Argon released on...?
Live
- $4.7K
- $4.7K
- 77
- $1.6K
- $6.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- On or prior to October 840.5%
- October 1917.5%
- October 2414.6%
- October 1414.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
25 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 25 open questions add up to 267.8¢.
- 40.5 %
On or prior to October 8
$189.16 traded, 24 h
Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢ - 17.5 %
October 19
$183.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢ - 14.6 %
October 24
$203.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.6¢No 85.4¢ - 14.0 %
October 27
$193.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢ - 14.0 %
October 14
$183.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢ - 13.5 %
October 16
$191.36 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢ - 13.1 %
October 12
$164.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.1¢No 86.9¢ - 13.0 %
October 13
$183.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢ - 12.5 %
October 20
$183.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢ - 12.0 %
October 26
$186.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢
- 11.0 %
October 21
$183.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢ - 10.0 %
October 22
$191.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢ - 9.5 %
October 18
$195.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 9.5 %
October 30
$183.11 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 8.0 %
October 23
$188.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 8.0 %
October 11
$186.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 7.0 %
No release by October 31
$201.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢ - 7.0 %
October 31
$186.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢ - 6.5 %
October 28
$181.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 6.0 %
October 29
$186.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 6.0 %
October 17
$186.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 5.5 %
October 9
$164.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 3.5 %
October 10
$183.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.1 %
October 25
$227.64 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢ - 2.5 %
October 15
$183.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 25 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 516
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 4,959 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 25 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 8, 2026 02:05 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.