Gemini Carbon released on...?
Live
- $7.8K
- $7.8K
- 82
- $2.2K
- $17.9K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 1710.5%
- November 2510.5%
- November 129.4%
- November 249.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
32 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 32 open questions add up to 169.8¢.
- 10.5 %
November 17
$282.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢ - 10.5 %
November 25
$262.43 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢ - 9.4 %
November 12
$224.52 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.4¢No 90.6¢ - 9.1 %
November 24
$178.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.1¢No 90.9¢ - 8.6 %
November 2
$229.93 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.6¢No 91.4¢ - 8.4 %
November 5
$190.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.4¢No 91.6¢ - 8.2 %
November 29
$153.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.2¢No 91.8¢ - 8.0 %
November 14
$236.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 8.0 %
November 22
$212.81 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 7.5 %
No release by November 30
$643.83 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢
- 6.5 %
November 27
$200.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 5.5 %
November 26
$279.84 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 5.5 %
November 1
$186.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 5.5 %
November 8
$161.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 5.3 %
November 10
$226.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.3¢No 94.7¢ - 4.6 %
November 20
$137.57 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.6¢No 95.4¢ - 4.3 %
On or prior to October 31
$183.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 4.3 %
November 23
$180.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 4.2 %
November 21
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢ - 4.2 %
November 15
$162.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢ - 3.9 %
November 4
$182.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.9¢No 96.1¢ - 3.6 %
November 6
$183.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.6¢No 96.4¢ - 3.5 %
November 30
$201.44 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.5 %
November 19
$164.56 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.2 %
November 7
$316.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.2¢No 96.8¢ - 2.9 %
November 16
$186.45 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.9¢No 97.1¢ - 2.9 %
November 11
$172.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.9¢No 97.1¢ - 2.5 %
November 18
$239.19 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢ - 2.1 %
November 3
$168.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 2.1 %
November 13
$166.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 1.1 %
November 28
$178.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
November 9
$170.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 32 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 765
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 9,608 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google. A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This event has 32 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 29, 2026 11:33 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.