GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?
Live
- $11.6K
- $13.6K
- 81
- $6.9K
- $41.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 627.0%
- November 109.8%
- November 59.5%
- November 119.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
28 open · 1 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 28 open questions add up to 100.0¢.
- 27.0 %
November 6
$1.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢ - 9.8 %
November 10
$236.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.8¢No 90.2¢ - 9.5 %
November 5
$1.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 9.0 %
November 11
$283.66 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 6.5 %
No release by November 30
$3.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 6.5 %
November 12
$394.26 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 5.7 %
November 18
$174.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.7¢No 94.3¢ - 5.2 %
November 23
$232.57 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.2¢No 94.8¢ - 3.5 %
November 4
$777.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 2.6 %
November 9
$234.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.6¢No 97.4¢
- 1.8 %
November 24
$166.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.6 %
November 8
$152.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.5 %
November 14
$444.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.3 %
November 22
$74.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - 1.1 %
November 28
$114.61 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
November 7
$909.93 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
November 15
$429.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
November 25
$115.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
November 17
$197.42 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 20
$173.16 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 30
$144.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 26
$94.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 29
$94.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 21
$83.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 19
$79.80 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 13
$75.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 27
$64.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 16
$49.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 28 open · 1 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 493
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 19,534 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 29 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
1 of the 29 have already settled No.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 4, 2026 17:21 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.