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Weather · MadridMadrid Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Madrid on October 6?

Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result

$23.8K
$26.1K
326
$21.1K
$111.7K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • 21°C68.5%
  • 22°C28.0%
  • 23°C3.8%
  • 24°C or higher0.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Weather · Madrid
Series
Madrid Daily Weather · daily
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$250
Dispute window
15 minutes
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
11 open
Fills, last 24 h
1,119
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
36,452 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

This event has 11 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

The result is checked against weather.gov. Open the source

It has been eligible for resolution since Oct 6, 2026 12:00 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 13:16 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.