Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
Live
- $28.5K
- $35.8K
- 31
- $3.5K
- $6.8K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- October 1099.7%
- October 896.9%
- October 595.6%
- October 1269.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
27 open · 4 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
October 10
$693.25 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢ - 96.9 %
October 8
$34.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 96.9¢No 3.1¢ - 95.6 %
October 5
$1.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 95.6¢No 4.4¢ - 69.5 %
October 12
$34.36 traded, 24 h
Yes 69.5¢No 30.5¢ - 63.5 %
October 13
$51.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 63.5¢No 36.5¢ - 61.0 %
October 11
$3.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢ - 59.5 %
October 14
Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢ - 56.5 %
October 15
$27.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢ - 56.5 %
October 18
Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢ - 55.5 %
October 16
Yes 55.5¢No 44.5¢
- 52.5 %
October 19
Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢ - 51.0 %
October 4
$29.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢ - 50.5 %
October 23
Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢ - 50.5 %
October 24
Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢ - 48.5 %
October 31
Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢ - 47.0 %
October 20
Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢ - 46.5 %
October 21
Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢ - 46.5 %
October 28
Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢ - 45.5 %
October 26
Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢ - 45.5 %
October 30
Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢ - 45.0 %
October 22
Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢ - 44.5 %
October 29
Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢ - 43.5 %
October 27
Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢ - 36.0 %
October 17
$1.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢ - 26.0 %
October 2
$77.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢ - 14.5 %
October 9
$15.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢ - 10.5 %
October 25
$3.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Series
- Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 27 open · 4 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 71
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 47,872 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 31 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
4 of the 31 have settled; October 3, October 6, October 7 settled Yes.
It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 11, 2026 13:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.