ISM Services PMI - October 2026
Live
- $4.4K
- $5.0K
- 58
- $1.8K
- $4.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 54.0 to 54.938.1%
- 55.0 to 55.930.5%
- 53.0 to 53.923.0%
- 57.0 to 57.97.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 10 open questions add up to 116.8¢.
- 38.1 %
54.0 to 54.9
$307.53 traded, 24 h
Yes 38.1¢No 61.9¢ - 30.5 %
55.0 to 55.9
$586.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢ - 23.0 %
53.0 to 53.9
$327.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢ - 7.5 %
57.0 to 57.9
$719.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢ - 5.0 %
52.0 to 52.9
$417.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢ - 3.9 %
56.0 to 56.9
$304.93 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.9¢No 96.1¢ - 3.5 %
59.0+
$786.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.0 %
51.0 to 51.9
$417.98 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 1.6 %
<51.0
$214.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - < 1 %
58.0 to 58.9
$319.93 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Economy
- Series
- ISM Services PMI · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 10 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 286
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 7,257 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 4, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This event has 10 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 4, 2026 15:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 7, 2026 15:56 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.