Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?
Live
- $15.1K
- $22.2K
- 25
- $20.5K
- $23.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 5-994.8%
- 15-191.4%
- 10-140.6%
- 20-240.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
13 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 13 open questions add up to 99.2¢.
- 94.8 %
5-9
$2.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 94.8¢No 5.2¢ - 1.4 %
15-19
$522.19 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - < 1 %
10-14
$553.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
20-24
$0.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
25-29
$0.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
30-34
$0.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
35-39
$0.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
40-44
$0.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
55-59
$0.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
45-49
$0.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics
- Series
- Khamenei Daily Tweets · daily
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 13 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 80
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 16,615 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 2, 12:00 PM ET and October 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This event has 13 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against x.com. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 9, 2026 16:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 15:07 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.