Meta's Watermelon released on...?
Live
- $4.0K
- $22.3K
- 43
- $11.6K
- $27.4K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- No release by October 3124.5%
- October 2810.0%
- October 208.6%
- October 218.6%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
25 open · 7 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 25 open questions add up to 105.4¢.
- 24.5 %
No release by October 31
$3.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢ - 10.0 %
October 28
$136.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢ - 8.6 %
October 20
$7.41 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.6¢No 91.4¢ - 8.6 %
October 21
Yes 8.6¢No 91.4¢ - 6.7 %
October 26
Yes 6.7¢No 93.3¢ - 4.9 %
October 29
Yes 4.9¢No 95.1¢ - 4.5 %
October 15
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.3 %
October 11
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 4.3 %
October 23
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 4.0 %
October 9
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢
- 4.0 %
October 12
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢ - 3.8 %
October 14
$1.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.8¢No 96.2¢ - 3.5 %
October 22
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.5 %
October 30
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.4 %
October 10
Yes 3.4¢No 96.6¢ - 1.6 %
October 31
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.1 %
October 18
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.0 %
October 24
$534.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - < 1 %
October 13
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
October 16
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
October 19
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
October 25
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
October 27
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
October 17
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
October 8
$19.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 25 open · 7 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 106
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 8,003 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 32 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
7 of the 32 have already settled No.
It can settle from Oct 31, 2026 23:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 04:08 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.