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Politics · Middle EastOil

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

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$6.4K
$6.4K
65
$4.3K
$91.3K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 3 questions with the highest chance now.

  • November 3067.5%
  • October 3147.0%
  • October 1515.0%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

3 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · Middle East
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
3 open
Fills, last 24 h
179
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
14,619 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on the East-West oil pipeline do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact the East-West oil pipeline if it directly impacts the pipeline or any of its pumping stations. The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Riyadh Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 3 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Nov 30, 2026 20:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 7, 2026 15:58 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.