Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
Live
- $5.4K
- $14.5K
- 58
- $5.2K
- $19.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- October 1421.2%
- No release by October 3117.8%
- October 1513.6%
- October 1312.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
26 open · 4 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 26 open questions add up to 147.0¢.
- 21.2 %
October 14
$285.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.2¢No 78.8¢ - 17.8 %
No release by October 31
$755.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 17.8¢No 82.2¢ - 13.6 %
October 15
$142.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.6¢No 86.4¢ - 12.4 %
October 13
$0.26 traded, 24 h
Yes 12.4¢No 87.6¢ - 10.7 %
October 16
$129.16 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.7¢No 89.3¢ - 10.0 %
October 12
$30.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢ - 8.5 %
October 19
$396.43 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢ - 7.9 %
October 29
$257.87 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.9¢No 92.1¢ - 6.3 %
October 9
Yes 6.3¢No 93.7¢ - 5.0 %
October 27
$493.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢
- 4.9 %
October 26
$332.83 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.9¢No 95.1¢ - 4.7 %
October 21
$448.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.7¢No 95.3¢ - 4.7 %
October 17
Yes 4.7¢No 95.3¢ - 4.6 %
October 22
Yes 4.6¢No 95.4¢ - 3.5 %
October 20
$20.54 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.3 %
October 28
$100.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.3¢No 96.7¢ - 1.9 %
October 8
$671.72 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.9¢No 98.1¢ - 1.9 %
October 11
Yes 1.9¢No 98.1¢ - 1.1 %
October 10
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
October 24
$258.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
October 23
$119.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
October 30
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
October 18
$189.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
October 31
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
October 25
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
October 7
$739.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 26 open · 4 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 178
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 7,421 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 30 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
4 of the 30 have already settled No.
It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 8, 2026 06:00 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.