Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...?
Live
- $5.9K
- $5.9K
- 51
- $2.7K
- $14.9K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 325.7%
- November 1820.4%
- November 2919.5%
- November 1216.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
40 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 40 open questions add up to 346.2¢.
- 25.7 %
November 3
$99.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.7¢No 74.3¢ - 20.4 %
November 18
$99.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 20.4¢No 79.6¢ - 19.5 %
November 29
$110.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 16.7 %
November 12
$100.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 16.7¢No 83.3¢ - 14.5 %
November 5
$118.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢ - 14.0 %
October 27
$125.84 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢ - 13.5 %
No release by November 30
$102.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢ - 12.5 %
November 27
$135.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢ - 12.0 %
October 24
$296.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢ - 11.5 %
October 28
$109.56 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢
- 11.5 %
November 20
$108.56 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢ - 10.5 %
November 22
$111.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢ - 10.5 %
October 26
$110.87 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢ - 10.5 %
November 19
$109.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢ - 10.2 %
November 24
$107.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.2¢No 89.8¢ - 9.5 %
November 15
$278.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 9.5 %
October 29
$98.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 9.0 %
November 8
$278.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 9.0 %
November 14
$278.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 9.0 %
November 13
$110.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 9.0 %
November 30
$109.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 8.5 %
October 30
$110.17 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢ - 7.5 %
November 10
$107.55 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢ - 6.0 %
November 1
$278.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 6.0 %
November 7
$278.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 6.0 %
October 31
$278.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 6.0 %
On or prior to October 23
$108.67 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 5.5 %
November 4
$109.42 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 4.5 %
November 21
$296.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.0 %
November 9
$109.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢ - 4.0 %
November 11
$99.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢ - 3.8 %
November 23
$110.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.8¢No 96.2¢ - 3.5 %
November 25
$102.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 2.5 %
October 25
$288.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢ - 2.5 %
November 6
$99.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢ - 2.1 %
November 26
$100.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 1.6 %
November 2
$99.59 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
November 17
$99.59 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
November 28
$99.59 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - < 1 %
November 16
$100.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 40 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 308
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 6,670 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 40 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 23, 2026 02:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.