Next James Bond actor?
Live
- $12.5K
- $638.6K
- 59
- $306.9K
- $220.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Jack Lowden37.4%
- No Bond chosen28.3%
- Callum Turner16.7%
- Jack Barton6.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
24 open · 25 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 37.4 %
Jack Lowden
$1.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 37.4¢No 62.6¢ - 28.3 %
No Bond chosen
$1.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 28.3¢No 71.7¢ - 16.7 %
Callum Turner
$893.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 16.7¢No 83.3¢ - 6.7 %
Jack Barton
$704.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.7¢No 93.3¢ - 6.6 %
Jack O'Connell
$754.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.6¢No 93.4¢ - 3.1 %
Tom Francis
$569.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢ - 2.7 %
Paul Mescal
$423.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.7¢No 97.3¢ - 2.3 %
Jacob Elordi
$676.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.3¢No 97.7¢ - < 1 %
Harris Dickinson
$640.45 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Henry Cavill
$421.61 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢
- < 1 %
Josh O'Connor
$502.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Theo James
$442.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Tom Hardy
$503.07 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Timothee Chalamet
$443.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
$443.24 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Richard Madden
$443.16 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
James Norton
$318.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Jonathan Bailey
$443.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Nicholas Galitzine
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Pierce Brosnan
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Tom Holland
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Michael B Jordan
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Robert James-Collier
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Tom Blyth
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
25 more that never traded
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A woman
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Other
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Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Movies
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 24 open · 25 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 225
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 23,910 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 49 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 11:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.