OpenAI resumes training on...?
Live
- $4.6K
- $19.6K
- 51
- $7.1K
- $15.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Not resumed by October 2064.0%
- October 1310.3%
- October 185.4%
- October 194.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
15 open · 9 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 15 open questions add up to 112.2¢.
- 64.0 %
Not resumed by October 20
$2.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 64.0¢No 36.0¢ - 10.3 %
October 13
$52.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.3¢No 89.7¢ - 5.4 %
October 18
$152.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.4¢No 94.6¢ - 4.7 %
October 19
$70.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.7¢No 95.3¢ - 4.5 %
October 20
$125.84 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.2 %
October 11
$52.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢ - 3.5 %
October 16
$436.55 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.4 %
October 15
$55.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.4¢No 96.6¢ - 2.8 %
October 14
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 2.8 %
October 12
$53.64 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 15 open · 9 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 119
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 9,780 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026. If no qualifying announcement is made by 11:59 PM ET on October 20, 2026, this market will resolve to "Not resumed by October 20". Resuming training means resuming, in part or in full, training suspended under the pause announced on September 25, 2026, including beginning a fresh training run in place of a suspended run. A qualifying announcement must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. The totality of the announcement and its surrounding context must clearly establish that training covered by the pause announced on September 25 has resumed, even if the announcement does not name the incident or specify the date the pause was announced. Statements that training is permitted, planned, or expected to restart do not by themselves qualify. Training that was not subject to the pause announced on September 25, 2026, does not qualify. This market will resolve to the date of the first qualifying announcement, regardless of whether the announcement is later modified or withdrawn, or training is subsequently paused again. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 24 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
9 of the 24 have already settled No.
It can settle from Oct 21, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 7, 2026 22:07 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.