Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
Live
- $6.2K
- $585.4K
- 61
- $182.4K
- $130.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- December 3164.5%
- November 3051.0%
- October 3123.5%
- October 153.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 open · 2 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- World · Ukraine & Russia
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 4 open · 2 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 95
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 13,702 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 6 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
2 of the 6 have already settled No.
It can settle from Dec 31, 2026 23:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 18:30 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.