Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?
Live
- $64.5K
- $64.5K
- 21
- $77.7K
- $2.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 392.0%
- November 584.0%
- November 467.2%
- November 666.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
19 open · 9 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 92.0 %
November 3
$10.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢ - 84.0 %
November 5
$23.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢ - 67.2 %
November 4
$22.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 67.2¢No 32.8¢ - 66.0 %
November 6
$8.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢ - 57.5 %
November 10
$22.08 traded, 24 h
Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢ - 50.0 %
November 7
$200.25 traded, 24 h
Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢ - 49.5 %
November 8
Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢ - 49.5 %
November 14
Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢ - 49.5 %
November 18
Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢ - 49.5 %
November 23
Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢
- 49.5 %
November 29
Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢ - 49.0 %
November 24
Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢ - 49.0 %
November 25
Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢ - 49.0 %
November 26
Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢ - 49.0 %
November 27
Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢ - 49.0 %
November 28
Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢ - 48.5 %
November 20
Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢ - 45.3 %
November 12
$39.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 45.3¢No 54.7¢ - 44.0 %
November 30
Yes 44.0¢No 56.0¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Series
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 19 open · 9 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 65
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 80,143 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia or the armed forces of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, including forces formally under the Presidential Leadership Council, whether or not operating as part of the Saudi-led coalition. A strike will qualify if it is attributed to any of these parties, regardless of which of them conducted it. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or other proxy forces will not qualify. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and armed forces of Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s internationally recognized government and its armed forces, the Saudi-led coalition, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 28 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 3, 2026 11:45 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.