S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?
Live
- $9.5K
- $9.7K
- 98
- $19.6K
- $48.0K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- $75599.0%
- $76094.3%
- $76564.5%
- $77021.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 99.0 %
$755
$85.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢ - 94.3 %
$760
$5.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 94.3¢No 5.7¢ - 64.5 %
$765
$375.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 64.5¢No 35.5¢ - 21.0 %
$770
$749.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢ - 4.2 %
$775
$2.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢ - 1.5 %
$780
$135.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.2 %
$805
$96.99 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.2¢No 98.8¢ - 1.1 %
$795
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.0 %
$800
$99.72 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - < 1 %
$785
$78.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Equities
- Series
- SPY Daily Close U/O · daily
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Dispute window
- 15 minutes
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 276
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 21,781 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?
This event has 11 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against pythdata.app. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 15, 2026 20:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 15, 2026 13:22 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.