S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 21?
Live
- $9.8K
- $10.1K
- 70
- $32.2K
- $23.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- $76099.9%
- $74599.5%
- $76599.5%
- $77097.8%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
$760
$212.24 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢ - > 99 %
$765
$308.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢ - > 99 %
$745
$29.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢ - 97.8 %
$770
$4.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 97.8¢No 2.2¢ - 96.3 %
$755
$299.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 96.3¢No 3.7¢ - 96.3 %
$750
$79.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 96.3¢No 3.7¢ - 92.5 %
$740
$79.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢ - 7.4 %
$785
$89.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.4¢No 92.6¢ - 7.4 %
$790
$59.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.4¢No 92.6¢ - 2.0 %
$775
$2.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Equities
- Series
- SPY Daily Close U/O · daily
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- No trading fee
- UMA bond
- $500
- Dispute window
- 15 minutes
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 386
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 34,842 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 21?
This event has 11 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against pythdata.app. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 21, 2026 20:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 21, 2026 19:37 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.