S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 6?
Live
- $26.6K
- $27.5K
- 50
- $21.4K
- $95.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- $75099.7%
- $74599.6%
- $75599.5%
- $76099.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
$750
$2.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢ - > 99 %
$745
$2.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 99.6¢No 0.4¢ - > 99 %
$755
$2.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢ - > 99 %
$760
$592.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.4¢No 0.6¢ - > 99 %
$765
$224.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.4¢No 0.6¢ - 97.9 %
$770
$1.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 97.9¢No 2.1¢ - 80.5 %
$775
$87.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢ - 26.5 %
$780
$170.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢ - 2.1 %
$785
$9.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - < 1 %
$790
$4.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Equities
- Series
- SPY Daily Close U/O · daily
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Dispute window
- 15 minutes
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 195
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 28,061 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 6?
This event has 11 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against pythdata.app. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 6, 2026 20:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 13:17 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.