S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 7?
Live
- $16.6K
- $16.7K
- 26
- $17.1K
- $14.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- $75599.3%
- $76099.0%
- $76597.7%
- $77092.3%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
$755
$136.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.3¢No 0.7¢ - 99.0 %
$760
$43.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢ - 97.7 %
$765
$408.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 97.7¢No 2.3¢ - 92.3 %
$770
$15.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 92.3¢No 7.7¢ - 43.5 %
$775
$365.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢ - 4.0 %
$780
$94.34 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢ - 2.4 %
$785
$235.52 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.4¢No 97.6¢ - 1.3 %
$795
$127.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - 1.3 %
$790
$49.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - < 1 %
$800
$43.52 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Equities
- Series
- SPY Daily Close U/O · daily
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Dispute window
- 15 minutes
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 122
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 17,653 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 7?
This event has 11 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against pythdata.app. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 7, 2026 20:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 7, 2026 13:47 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.