Third-best AI Lab end of November?
Live
- $5.7K
- $17.5K
- 87
- $3.0K
- $13.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Meta65.0%
- Google11.5%
- Alibaba8.5%
- Z.ai4.6%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
21 open · 14 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 65.0 %
Meta
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢ - 11.5 %
Google
$756.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢ - 8.5 %
Alibaba
$694.11 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢ - 4.6 %
Z.ai
$186.24 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.6¢No 95.4¢ - 4.5 %
Anthropic
$182.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.5 %
Xiaomi
$186.67 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 3.6 %
Moonshot
$176.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.6¢No 96.4¢ - 3.1 %
OpenAI
$166.93 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢ - 2.8 %
DeepSeek
$217.34 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 2.6 %
Amazon
$190.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.6¢No 97.4¢
- 1.1 %
ByteDance
$187.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Thinky
$138.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
SpaceXAI
$187.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Tencent
$187.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
MiniMax
$167.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Microsoft
$187.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
StepFun
$174.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Meituan
$167.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Mistral
$147.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Baidu
$187.84 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Nvidia
$42.96 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
14 more that never traded
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Series
- Third Best AI Company · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 21 open · 14 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 351
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,861 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This event has 35 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 02:25 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.