TIME Person of the Year 2026
Live
- $8.4K
- $72.3K
- 20
- $73.2K
- $518.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Zohran Mamdani28.5%
- Mark Carney17.5%
- Pope Leo XIV9.5%
- Dario Amodei7.6%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
27 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 28.5 %
Zohran Mamdani
$134.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 28.5¢No 71.5¢ - 17.5 %
Mark Carney
$2.53 traded, 24 h
Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢ - 9.5 %
Pope Leo XIV
$42.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 7.6 %
Dario Amodei
Yes 7.6¢No 92.4¢ - 6.5 %
Donald Trump
$29.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 6.5 %
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 6.5 %
Elon Musk
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 6.4 %
Artificial Intelligence
$24.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.4¢No 93.6¢ - 5.1 %
Reid Wiseman
Yes 5.1¢No 94.9¢ - 5.0 %
Marco Rubio
$2.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢
- 4.9 %
Sam Altman
Yes 4.9¢No 95.1¢ - 4.3 %
Victor Glover
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 4.0 %
Jeremy Hansen
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢ - 3.9 %
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
Yes 3.9¢No 96.1¢ - 3.7 %
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$37.96 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.7¢No 96.3¢ - 3.6 %
Christina Koch
$5.29 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.6¢No 96.4¢ - 3.5 %
Bad Bunny
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.3 %
Shehbaz Sharif
Yes 3.3¢No 96.7¢ - 3.3 %
Mojtaba Khamenei
Yes 3.3¢No 96.7¢ - 3.2 %
Péter Magyar
Yes 3.2¢No 96.8¢ - 3.1 %
ChatGPT
Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢ - 3.0 %
Ali Khamenei
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 2.9 %
James Talarico
$2.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.9¢No 97.1¢ - 1.5 %
Jerome Powell
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.4 %
Alysa Liu
$2.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.0 %
Taylor Swift
$84.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - < 1 %
Bernie Sanders
$228.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 27 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 38
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,910 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
This event has 27 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jul 1, 2027 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 14, 2026 11:46 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.