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Politics · GeopoliticsTrump-Machado

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Live

$5.7K
$14.28M
88
$736.8K
$2.28M

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Nicolás Maduro72.3%
  • Delcy Rodríguez24.5%
  • No Head of State2.3%
  • María Corina Machado0.6%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

16 open · 41 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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41 more that never traded

Event facts

Category
Politics · Geopolitics
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
Resolution terms
Varies by question
Questions
16 open · 41 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
249
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
15,623 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

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The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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Who is trading this event

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

This event has 57 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 17:15 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.