What will Kevin Warsh say during October Press Conference?
Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result
- $20.0K
- $25.1K
- 142
- $26.7K
- $17.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas100.0%
- Soft / Softening100.0%
- Inflation 20+ times99.7%
- SI / Super Intelligence99.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
15 open · 5 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
$695.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 100.0¢No 0.0¢ - > 99 %
Soft / Softening
$250.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 100.0¢No 0.0¢ - > 99 %
Inflation 20+ times
$786.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢ - > 99 %
SI / Super Intelligence
$3.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢ - < 1 %
Pressure / Stagflation
$311.25 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times
$3.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Price 30+ times
$474.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Unchanged / Dissent
$232.49 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Software
$106.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Pandemic / Recession
$36.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
- < 1 %
Conflict / Middle East
$342.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
$317.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
President / Trump
$349.08 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Good Afternoon
$1.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Oversight
$212.56 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Economy & the Fed
- Series
- Warsh Mentions · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- No trading fee
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 15 open · 5 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 402
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 34,275 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on October 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
This event has 20 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
5 of the 20 have settled; Good Day, Payroll, CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Good Question settled Yes.
It has been eligible for resolution since Oct 28, 2026 18:35 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 28, 2026 20:40 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.