What will Trump say on November 4?
Live
- $8.5K
- $8.5K
- 77
- $1.1K
- $1.8K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Corrupt / Corruption 5+ times39.5%
- Mail-in23.9%
- Fake News20.0%
- Fraud / Fraudulent 5+ times19.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 open · 8 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 39.5 %
Corrupt / Corruption 5+ times
$669.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢ - 23.9 %
Mail-in
$56.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.9¢No 76.1¢ - 20.0 %
Fake News
$23.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢ - 19.5 %
Fraud / Fraudulent 5+ times
$90.45 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 3.0 %
Red Wave
$79.96 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 1.1 %
Allah
$86.49 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.0 %
Mandate
$37.11 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - 1.0 %
AI / SI
$32.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - 1.0 %
Tariff
$32.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - 1.0 %
Filibuster
$32.11 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢
8 settled
- Settled Yes
Veto
$1.7K traded, 24 h
- Settled Yes
Strait / Hormuz / Blockade
$1.5K traded, 24 h
- Settled Yes
China
$1.2K traded, 24 h
- Settled Yes
Bibi
$624.44 traded, 24 h
- Settled Yes
Israel
$594.51 traded, 24 h
- Settled Yes
Transgender
$579.84 traded, 24 h
- Settled Yes
Congratulations / Congrats
$553.86 traded, 24 h
- Settled Yes
Impeach / Impeachment / Impeached
$279.01 traded, 24 h
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Trump
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open · 8 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 193
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 10,742 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
This event has 19 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
8 of the 19 have settled; Veto, Strait / Hormuz / Blockade, China, Bibi, Israel, Transgender, Congratulations / Congrats, Impeach / Impeachment / Impeached settled Yes.
It can settle from Nov 5, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 5, 2026 02:18 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.