Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Live
- $6.0K
- $1.13M
- 69
- $208.7K
- $1.25M
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Google43.5%
- Anthropic41.5%
- OpenAI10.2%
- Meta2.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
15 open · 11 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 43.5 %
Google
$1.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢ - 41.5 %
Anthropic
$1.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢ - 10.2 %
OpenAI
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 10.2¢No 89.8¢ - 2.1 %
Meta
$279.81 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 2.1 %
xAI
$210.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - < 1 %
Moonshot
$185.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Alibaba
$177.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
DeepSeek
$186.11 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Z.ai
$167.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Mistral
$167.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Series
- Best AI Company · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 15 open · 11 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 210
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 28,370 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This event has 26 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 31, 2026 17:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 10, 2026 09:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.