Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Live
- $23.7K
- $1.02M
- 116
- $418.3K
- $1.55M
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Google69.2%
- Anthropic29.5%
- OpenAI1.1%
- Meta0.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
21 open · 11 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 69.2 %
Google
$9.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 69.2¢No 30.8¢ - 29.5 %
Anthropic
$7.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢ - 1.1 %
OpenAI
$2.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Meta
$1.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
SpaceXAI
$2.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Alibaba
$4.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Z.ai
$5.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Microsoft
$1.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Amazon
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Baidu
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
- < 1 %
ByteDance
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
DeepSeek
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Meituan
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
MiniMax
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Mistral
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Moonshot
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Nvidia
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
StepFun
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Tencent
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Thinky
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Xiaomi
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Series
- Best AI Company · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 21 open · 11 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 292
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 64,086 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This event has 32 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Oct 31, 2026 16:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 11, 2026 00:13 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.