Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Live
- $6.7K
- $32.4K
- 40
- $3.7K
- $24.8K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Anthropic83.8%
- OpenAI4.9%
- DeepSeek0.4%
- Meta0.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
21 open · 11 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 83.8 %
Anthropic
$6.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 83.8¢No 16.2¢ - 4.9 %
OpenAI
$55.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.9¢No 95.1¢ - < 1 %
Meta
$137.87 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
DeepSeek
$5.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Google
$137.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
Moonshot
$137.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
Baidu
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
ByteDance
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
SpaceXAI
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
StepFun
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
- < 1 %
Nvidia
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Thinky
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Xiaomi
$21.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Alibaba
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Amazon
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Meituan
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Microsoft
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
MiniMax
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Mistral
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Tencent
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Z.ai
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Series
- LiveBench (Overall) Monthly · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 21 open · 11 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 87
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,050 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This event has 32 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Oct 31, 2026 16:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 24, 2026 09:08 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.