Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Live
- $13.1K
- $36.5K
- 46
- $20.3K
- $8.0K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- South Sudan39.5%
- Ethiopia26.0%
- Nigeria25.5%
- Rwanda24.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 open · 2 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 39.5 %
South Sudan
Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢ - 26.0 %
Ethiopia
$32.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢ - 25.5 %
Nigeria
Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢ - 24.5 %
Rwanda
$335.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢ - 24.0 %
Republic of the Congo
$674.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢ - 21.0 %
India
Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢ - 16.0 %
Burundi
$20.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢ - 15.0 %
Somalia
$170.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢ - 12.0 %
Canada
Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢ - 10.5 %
United States
$50.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open · 2 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 100
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 22,902 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This event has 13 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
2 of the 13 have settled; Kenya, Uganda settled Yes.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 15:39 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.