Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Live
- $10.2K
- $107.7K
- 49
- $39.5K
- $43.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day64.0%
- Avengers: Doomsday36.5%
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping0.1%
- Dune: Messiah0.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
5 open · 1 settled · 15 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 64.0 %
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$5.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 64.0¢No 36.0¢ - 36.5 %
Avengers: Doomsday
$2.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢ - < 1 %
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$2.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Dune: Messiah
$46.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Toy Story 5
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
15 more that never traded
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Movies
- Series
- Biggest Opening Weekend
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 5 open · 1 settled · 15 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 105
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 28,491 shares
- Event start
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This event has 21 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
1 of the 21 have already settled No.
It can settle from Feb 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 5, 2026 01:33 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.