Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
Live
- $4.7K
- $19.7K
- 18
- $12.4K
- $201.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Yashar56.0%
- Together55.5%
- Yisrael Beiteinu54.5%
- RZP-Zehut53.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
15 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 56.0 %
Yashar
Yes 56.0¢No 44.0¢ - 55.5 %
Together
$36.98 traded, 24 h
Yes 55.5¢No 44.5¢ - 54.5 %
Yisrael Beiteinu
$23.26 traded, 24 h
Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢ - 53.5 %
RZP-Zehut
$26.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢ - 53.0 %
The Democrats
Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢ - 41.5 %
Likud
Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢ - 38.0 %
United Torah Judaism
$109.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢ - 36.0 %
Shas
$195.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢ - 35.5 %
Otzma Yehudit
Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢ - 28.5 %
Amcha Yisrael
$75.34 traded, 24 h
Yes 28.5¢No 71.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- World · Global elections
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 15 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 36
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 7,538 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
This event has 15 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against main.knesset.gov.il. Open the source
It can settle from Jun 30, 2027 23:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 7, 2026 21:29 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.