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Politics · US electionsMidterms

Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?

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$12.5K
$19.1K
48
$15.6K
$99.9K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 3 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Democratic Party84.5%
  • Republican Party9.0%
  • Tie5.1%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

3 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 3 open questions add up to 98.6¢.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · US elections
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
No trading fee
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
3 open
Fills, last 24 h
192
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
19,997 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 3 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 31, 2026 22:54 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.