Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Live
- $5.1K
- $661.4K
- 59
- $87.1K
- $463.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Jared Kushner41.5%
- Steve Witkoff41.5%
- Abbas Araghchi40.5%
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani39.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
23 open · 4 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 41.5 %
Steve Witkoff
$813.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢ - 41.5 %
Jared Kushner
$536.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢ - 40.5 %
Abbas Araghchi
$270.44 traded, 24 h
Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢ - 39.0 %
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$378.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢ - 30.0 %
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$133.54 traded, 24 h
Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢ - 24.5 %
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$165.52 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢ - 21.5 %
Nick Stewart
Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢ - 19.5 %
J.D. Vance
$132.07 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 19.5 %
Kazem Gharibabadi
$0.61 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 14.5 %
Rafael Grossi
$371.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢
- 14.5 %
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢ - 12.5 %
Ishaq Dar
$1.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢ - 12.5 %
Masoud Pezeshkian
$684.44 traded, 24 h
Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢ - 8.5 %
Marco Rubio
Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢ - 4.6 %
Donald Trump
$0.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.6¢No 95.4¢ - 4.5 %
Pete Hegseth
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.3 %
Ahmad Vahidi
$247.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 3.5 %
Newt Gingrich
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.0 %
Esmail Qaani
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 2.8 %
Palmer Luckey
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 2.5 %
Elon Musk
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢ - 2.3 %
Mohammed bin Salman
Yes 2.3¢No 97.7¢ - 2.1 %
Mojtaba Khamenei
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Series
- Who attend US-Iran peace talks
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 23 open · 4 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 162
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 8,944 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This event has 27 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
4 of the 27 have settled; Abbas Araghchi, Jared Kushner, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Steve Witkoff settled Yes.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 8, 2026 23:13 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.