Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
Live
- $9.4K
- $9.4K
- 77
- $11.3K
- $16.9K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Ousmane Dembélé95.2%
- Lamine Yamal94.5%
- Harry Kane91.0%
- Rodri88.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
14 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 95.2 %
Ousmane Dembélé
$1.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 95.2¢No 4.8¢ - 94.5 %
Lamine Yamal
$116.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢ - 91.0 %
Harry Kane
$1.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢ - 88.5 %
Rodri
$115.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢ - 66.0 %
David Beckham
$325.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢ - 59.5 %
Kylian Mbappé
$348.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢ - 58.5 %
Michael Owen
$85.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 58.5¢No 41.5¢ - 51.5 %
Lionel Messi
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢ - 39.5 %
Zinedine Zidane
$654.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢ - 21.5 %
Vinícius Júnior
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Awards
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 15% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 14 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 287
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 21,098 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 14 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 17, 2026 02:23 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.