Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Live
- $9.4K
- $248.1K
- 10
- $52.8K
- $131.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- CXMT30.0%
- CATL26.0%
- Hesai17.5%
- Unitree17.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 30.0 %
CXMT
$9.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢ - 26.0 %
CATL
Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢ - 17.5 %
Hesai
Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢ - 17.0 %
Unitree
Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢ - 16.0 %
Baidu
$16.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢ - 13.5 %
Alibaba
Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢ - 13.5 %
Tencent
Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢ - 12.5 %
YMTC
Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢ - 10.5 %
DJI
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢ - 6.0 %
BYD
$0.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 10 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 16
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 31,636 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
This event has 10 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jul 1, 2027 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 14, 2026 11:47 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.