Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Live
- $6.2K
- $62.4K
- 39
- $16.9K
- $271.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- None before 202743.4%
- Susie Wiles22.4%
- Pete Hegseth10.2%
- Mike Waltz6.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
21 open · 8 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 43.4 %
None before 2027
$3.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 43.4¢No 56.6¢ - 22.4 %
Susie Wiles
$3.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 22.4¢No 77.6¢ - 10.2 %
Pete Hegseth
Yes 10.2¢No 89.8¢ - 6.7 %
Mike Waltz
Yes 6.7¢No 93.3¢ - 5.0 %
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢ - 4.5 %
Lee Zeldin
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 3.9 %
Russell T. Vought
Yes 3.9¢No 96.1¢ - 2.3 %
Brooke Rollins
Yes 2.3¢No 97.7¢ - 1.5 %
Doug Burgum
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.2 %
J.D. Vance
Yes 1.2¢No 98.8¢
- < 1 %
Howard Lutnick
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
Linda McMahon
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
Doug Collins
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Jamieson Greer
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Scott Bessent
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Marco Rubio
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
Kelly Loeffler
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Chris Wright
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
John Ratcliffe
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Scott Turner
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Sean Duffy
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Trump
- Series
- First To Leave Trump Cabinet · annual
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 21 open · 8 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 125
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 12,419 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This event has 29 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 16, 2026 15:34 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.